Fortunate NBA Champions (2001-2016)

Writing for The Pudding, Russell Samora recently put together a list of the “most ethical” NBA champions, wherein he used a formula (with many entertaining graphs) to determine, going back to 2001, which NBA champions benefited the least and most from missed games against their playoff rivals. I followed the NBA closely for most of the relevant period, let us say 2001-16, so I can offer my own, non-stat-infused take, on which champions had the most good fortune in the misfortune of their rivals (not that I am opposed to creative stat-takes on the NBA, mind you). See my list of “fortunate” NBA champions from 2001-16 below (I refuse to use “ethical,” which I think is a new entry in the genre of the internet leading to the creation of ridiculous ways to describe things in the NBA, all of which miss the charm of the olden playground slang).

• 2002-03 San Antonio Spurs: The 2002-03 Spurs were clearly and beyond doubt the weakest of the five Spurs championship squads, but they benefited from having the absolute best version of Tim Duncan, to carry them through the playoffs. But while Mr. Duncan created the 2002-03 Spurs’ good fortune with his monstrous playoff run, the Spurs had some good luck in the Western Conference Finals. In the Western Conference Finals, the Spurs faced the Dallas Mavericks, which had the NBA’s best regular season SRS (+7.90 to the Spurs’ +5.68) and Net Rating (+8.4 to the Spurs’ +6.0), although the Mavericks had the bad luck to have the same 60-22 record as the Spurs and miss out on home court advantage. The Mavericks had a rough time making it to the West Finals, unexpectedly being taken the seven game distance after going up 3-0 against the Portland Trail Blazers in round one and surviving a tough seven-game affair against the Sacramento Kings (second in both regular season SRS and Net) in the semifinals. Of course, the real misfortune would hit the Mavericks against the Spurs, with their best player, Dirk Nowitzki, missing the final three games of the conference finals, which the Spurs won 4-2 (the Spurs had been up 2-1). The Mavericks had been better than the Spurs all year. While the result may have been the same even had Mr. Nowitzki remained healthy (Mr. Duncan had quite the series), the Mavericks’ fate was likely sealed with the injury. (See 2003 Western Conference Finals stats.)
• 2003-04 Detroit Pistons: I wrote two full articles on the 2003-04 Pistons, with the first offering my hot take that they were better off having not drafted Carmelo Anthony (for that one season, at least) and the second on their “upset” of the star-studded Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Finals. The Lakers were missing starting power forward Karl Malone for much of the Finals (referenced in Mr. Samora’s article), but that is not the injury which puts them on my list. The Pistons so thoroughly dominated the Lakers that Mr. Malone’s injury was immaterial to the final outcome. But the Pistons had some luck in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, where they fell behind the two-time defending Eastern Conference Champion New Jersey Nets 3-2 after jumping out to a 2-0 lead, and barely avoided elimination in New Jersey in game six by a score of 81-75. This series highlights a short-coming of focusing only on games “missed.” The Nets’ best player, perennial All NBA point guard Jason Kidd, was playing through knee problems which resulted in micro-fracture surgery in the offseason (and effectively marked the end of his “peak”). Given the closeness of the series, one can fairly speculate that the Nets may have prevailed had Mr. Kidd, who shot a ghastly 36.5% from the floor, been closer to full health. (See 2004 Eastern Conference Semifinals stats.)
• 2006-07 San Antonio Spurs: While the 2002-03 Spurs were the worst of the five Spurs title teams, 2006-07 was, by almost all objective measures (save for sublime NBA Finals performances, see 2013-14) the best. But like the 2002-03 squad, they made some good fortune for themselves. The Western Conference Finals were likely the true “finals” that year, with the two best remaining teams by a wide margin in the Spurs (58-24, +8.35 SRS, +9.3 Net) and Phoenix Suns (61-21, +7.28 SRS, +7.6 Net) meeting. The Spurs and Suns split the first four games 2-2, with the Spus slightly out-scoring the Spurs. Unfortunately for Phoenix, All Star Amare Stoudemire and top reserve Boris Diaw were suspended for game five after stepping off the bench in response to Spurs forward Robert Horry body-slamming the Suns’ best player, two-time MVP Steve Nash (Mr. Nash had been the starting point guard on the 2002-03 Mavericks). Without leading scorer Stoudmire and Diaw, the Suns lost gave five 88-85 before falling in game six in San Antonio. (See 2007 Western Conference Semifinals.)
• 2008-09 Los Angeles Lakers: The 2008-09 Lakers were the clear better of the two decade-closing Lakers championship teams, but their championship run was bolstered by direct and indirect good fortune. In the Western Conference Semifinals, the Lakers (65-17, +7.11 SRS, +8.1 Net) faced the Houston Rockets (53-29, +3.73 SRS, +4.4 Net). The Rockets were led by star center Yao Ming, who made All NBA Second Team and had his healthiest regular season in years (note Tracy McGrady only played in 35 games and was out well before the playoffs). The Rockets won game one on the road before dropping games two and three. Yao Ming was out for game four (and the rest of the series), but the Rockets went on to win games four and six at home to force an unexpeted game seven. The Lakers won games five and seven by margins suggesting that a healthy Yao Ming would not have changed the outcome, but it is worth including. (See 2009 Western Conference Semifinals.) In the area of indirect luck, the defending NBA champion Boston Celtics, who had decisively defeated the Lakers in the 2008 NBA Finals, finished the regular season 62-20 (+7.44 SRS, +8.2 Net) despite their best player, Kevin Garnett, missing 25 games. Mr. Garnett was out for the playoffs, but the Celtics only narrowly lost in the Eastern Conference Finals to the eventual Eastern Conference Champion Orlando Magic. I am inclined to think the Celtics would have won the title with a healthy Kevin Garnett, but we shall never know.
• 2014-15 Golden State Warriors: Mr. Samora rated the 2014-15 Warriors as the most “unethical” champion, and they have a strong case. The Warriors had a historically great regular season, albeit over-shadowed by their next two seasons (67-15, +10.01 SRS, +10.2 Net) and rolled through the first three rounds before facing the Cleveland Cavaliers, which went from missing the playoffs to the NBA Finals thanks to the re-acquisition of LeBron James and addition of Kevin Love. The Cavaliers had not been notably impressive in the regular season (53-29, +4.08 SRS, +4.8 Net), but rampaged through the Eastern Conference en route to the Finals. Alas for Cleveland, Kevin Love would miss the Finals and Kyrie Irving, Cleveland’s star point guard, was taken out for the series in Cleveland’s game one overtime loss. But with 2/3 of Cleveland’s big three gone, LeBron James willed Cleveland to wins in games two and three to take a 2-1 lead, but Golden State swept the next three games (despite some huge, albeit inefficient, numbers from James) to win the title. For whatever it is worth, I think a slightly healthier Cleveland would have won, as they would one year later in 2016. Speaking of which… (See 2015 NBA Finals.)
• 2015-16 Cleveland Cavaliers: The Warriors and Cavaliers met again in the 2016 NBA Finals. Although the Warriors (73-9, +10.38 SRS, +10.7 Net) were favored over the Cavaliers (57-25, +5.45 SRS, +6.4 Net), I am proud to say that I picked Cleveland before the Finals and stuck with Cleveland even when they fell behind 3-1, a deficit that no team had previously overcome in the Finals. But in 2016 it was the Cavaliers rather than the Warriors which benefited from some good luck. Warriors forward Draymond Green, who was their defensive anchor and an All NBA Second Team honoree, got himself suspended for the potential clinching game five of the Finals after he kicked LeBron James in the crotch in game four (one flagrant foul too many). The Cavaliers avoided elimination on the road in game five against the Green-less Warriors 112-97 thanks to matching 41 point performances by LeBron James and Kyrie Irving. Green returned, but the Cavaliers forced game seven with a 115-101 win at home in game six and then won a close game seven 93-89 on the road to secure the historic comeback. While Green cost his team big with his game five suspension, no one can fault him for his epic 32 point, 15 rebound, 9 assist performance in game seven. Alas for the Warriors, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined for 31 points on 12-36 shooting, and the Cavaliers had just enough to win it in the end. (See 2016 NBA Finals.)

That is my non-exhaustive list of “fortunate” champions (in terms of their playoff opponents’ misfortune) from 2001-2016. But in the end, every NBA champion can stand to benefit from some good fortune, even historically great teams like the 2006-07 Spurs and 2014-15 Warriors.

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