Evaluating My Nagoya Basho Predictions

On July 11, I made my pre-Nagoya Basho predictions for the fourth grand sumo tournament of 2026. To be precise, I picked eight wrestlers to hit double digit wins. Now that the Nagoya Basho has been completed, let us see how I did…

First, let us look at the records of the eight wrestlers I predicted to reach 10 wins:

• Y1w Onosato (9-6)
• Y1e Hoshoryu (7-7-1)
• O1e Kirishima (12-3) (PO 0-2)
• K1e Yoshinofuji (6-9)
• M3w Hakunofuji (9-6)
• M7w Takayasu (11-4)
• M13w Takerufuji (10-5)
• M16w Asakoryu (9-6)

Alas, only three of my eight picks reached 10 wins, although I will note with some satisfaction that an additional three finished one short at 9-6. Onosato and Asakoryu started slow, but finished strong, to notch matching 9-6 records from opposite ends of the ranking scale. Meanwhile, Haukunofuji looked to be on pace for double-digit wins before a mid-basho slump. Hoshoryu started well before fading and withdrawing on day 14 due to injury while Yoshinofuji had a slightly disappointing debut at komosubi.

10 wrestlers ultimately reached 10 wins (more than the 8 I had in my predictions). The seven I missed:

• S1e Atamifuji (12-3) (PO 1-1)
• S2w Aonishiki (12-3) (PO 2-0) [Y]
• M7e Kotoeiho (11-4)
• M4e Daieisho (10-5)
• M9e Fujiryoga (10-5)
• M13e Nishikifuji (10-5)
• M14w Shishi (10-5)

I thought about picking Atamifuji but was thinking more along the lines of his matching his 9-6 from May. I unwisely shied away from the champion, Aonishki, after his struggles in March and missing the May tournament, but he was certainly superlative in this one. Kotoeiho and Fujiryoga were two lower-ranked stars from May, and they exceeded my prediction expectations in carrying their success over to their higher rankings. I was not thinking about Daiesho hitting 10 after a respectable streak of 7-8 finishes to start the year. Nishikifuji was not on my radar at all, and Shishi’s strong performance caught me by surprise. I will note one from the 9-6 club I had considered picking was Asanoyama (M10e), who was well on pace for double digits before a some competitive losses in the home stretch.

It was fun going on record with sumo picks for the first time, and I look forward to trying my hand in September (perhaps with an expanded selection).

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