Ten Predictions For the 2026 Kyushu Basho

I made predictions leading up to the July and September grand sumo tournaments. Before July’s Nagoya Basho I made picks for wrestlers who would notch 10 wins (I did so-so). For September’s Aki Basho, I predicted the records of every wrestler (again, so-so). I had wanted to take another stab at predicting the field before the Kyushu Basho, which starts tomorrow, but I did not have time to sit down and work my way to the field with that level of detail. Instead, I will make ten general predictions below and we can check back and see how I did in just over two weeks. For anyone reading, note that I am by no means a sumo expert and only started watching all of the top-level matches recently, so consider this a layman’s analysis. (See the whole field on Sumostats.)

1. My yusho pick is K1w Yoshinofuji. He finished 9-1 in September after a rough 0-5 start. In his best tournament of the year in May, he finished 10-1 after a 1-3 start. He has the skills and the form for a big November.
2. I see Onosato and Aonishiki being high up in the yusho mix again (shock). I will also predict that Kirishima rebounds after a disappointing September for 10-11 wins.
3. I have Hoshoryu reaching a respectable 10 wins after sitting out in September, but taking a few too many losses to be in the yusho mix on the final weekend.
4. I predict everyone else in sanyaku except Churanoumi will post a winning record, but at 8-9 wins.
5. I’m not high on the M1-M4 group in November. I think Asanoyama and Takayasu will grind out winning records, with Asanoyama earning a promotion to komusubi for January. I think Takerufuji and Daieisho will be on the 7-8 win line, with Takerufuji being the better pick for 8 wins. I think the rest of the group will have losing records.
6. I’m also not too high on the M5-M8 group as a whole, but I am high on Kotoeiho as a sleeper maegishira yusho contender at M6w. He strugged at M1w in September, but posted 11-4 at M7e in July after two consecutive stellar performances. I also expect his older brother, Kotoshoho, to notch 9-10 wins from M6e.
7. From the lower ranks, I will buy stock in Takanosho at M11e and Toshinofuji at M13e as candidates to notch at least 10 wins. Takanosho struggled with an injury after a good start in September, but he should be way too strong for M11e if healthy. I liked what we saw from Toshinofuji in his debut in September and expect to see him build on that showing in November. I would less enthusiastically buy stock in Oho at M10w, despite his disappointing 7-8 performance at the same rank in September.
8. Having published two articles about the iron man Tamawashi, I’ll predict he secures 8-9 wins from his M15e ranking. On the other end of the age spectrum, I’ll predict a winning record for 22-year old Arashifuji, who is making his top-division debut after going 21-9 in just two tournaments at Juryo.
9. Speaking of Juryo — I’m less familiar with much of the Juryo field than even the top division. But I’ll pick Kazuma to bounce back with his second yusho of the year after following his disappointing top-division debut in July with a 6-9 mark in juryo in September.
10. My picks for double-digit wins in the top-division: Y1e Onosato, Y1w Hoshoryu, O1e Aonishki, O2e Kirishima, K1w Yoshinofuji, M6w Kotoeiho, M11e Takanosho, and M13e Toshinofuji.

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