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EconReporter

EconReporter

@econreporter.bsky.social

Independent Journalism Project covering Economics and Global Economy

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A Long Way Still Ahead for the US’s Disinflation Journey

Inflation breadth can be an effective communication tool for central banks to explain the underlying inflation as it's a relatively easy-to-understand concept, compared to excluding certain components from "core" inflation calculations. Here, we use the June CPI data to explore whether the inflation breadth has closed as oil prices dropped.

Chris WallerUS Economy

We Just Love to Hate Trimmed-mean Inflation—Canada’s Cautionary Tale About Introducing New Core Measures

Trimmed-mean inflation measure and its sibling median inflation gauge have both gotten unprecedented attention in recent months, owing to new Fed chairman Warsh's endorsement. But if they are so good, why wait for some Task Forces to evaluate it? Actually Canada can provide some experiences.

Bank of CanadaCore Inflation

The curious case of why UK and Canada CPI use grocery scanner data but the US can’t

A deep dive on why the US's—the world's most important economy—inflation statistics enhancement progress has surprisingly lagged compared to the UK and Canada?

Warsh Makes the Fed’s Reaction Function Unpredictable Again

Kevin Warsh on Wednesday put his stamp on his first FOMC meeting by keeping his promise to cut back forward guidance from the Federal Reserve's communications. The post meeting statement has fewer words; the press conference is shorter; Warsh didn't submit his projections for the dot plot; and he refused to answer any question that required him to sound like he was offering forward guidance.

Federal ReserveForward Guidance

Warsh’s first FOMC meeting—a hawkish path that makes Powell the (scape)GOAT

On top of the Fed's official objectives — "maximum employment" and "2% inflation" — now sits a third: that economic growth needn't be answered with rate hikes, and perhaps even that a strong economy can still warrant rate cuts. How should Warsh handles that?

Federal ReserveJay Powell

Should the Fed and BoC look through the World Cup employment boost?

The important question, however, is this: shouldn't the Fed and Bank of Canada look through such a one-off, short-term World Cup employment boost?

Bank of CanadaCanada Jobs Report

Taking One Last Beth Before the Fed Blackout Period

Beth Hammack, president of the Cleveland Fed, posted on LinkedIn hours after the jobs report that "today's jobs report reaffirms that the labor market appears to be roughly in balance" and that she "believe[s] persistently high inflation is the bigger concern." If recent inflationary trends continue, "it may soon be appropriate to act," she concluded.

Beth HammackFederal Reserve

Governor Powell’s First Speech Doesn’t Sound ‘Quiet’

Federal Reserve Governor Powell, who vowed to be a "low-profile" Fed governor in support of Chairman Warsh, made sure everyone still heard him in his first speech after handing over the chairmanship.

Central Bank IndependenceChris Waller

Powell Hands Warsh a Dissent Surge, But Not Really a Divided Fed

What if I tell you the Fed officials actually disagreed more at times during the zero-against vote period than in the last meeting? This is what the FOMC minutes-based Hidden Dissent Index indicates.

Federal ReserveFOMC Hidden Dissent

Central bankers are pushing back against the ‘War? Sh!’ strategy — why look-through may no longer be a good idea

Federal Reserve governor Chris Waller on Friday cast serious doubt on the textbook look-through strategy to handle the Iran War-induced inflationary pressure — or what we fashionably called the "War? Sh~" strategy. And he is not the only central banker who has expressed reservations.

Chris WallerFederal Reserve

Trump to swear Warsh in as Fed chair on May 22

Kevin Warsh will officially take charge of the Federal Reserve on Friday as he will be sworn in as the next Fed chair at a White House ceremony hosted by President Donald Trump, Fox News's Edward Lawrence reported. Reuters then reported, citing unnamed White House officials, that Trump will not only host the ceremony but...

Central Bank IndependenceDonald Trump

Warsh’s Forward Guidance Paradox

Let's get this straight: Warsh hates forward guidance. But if we look at the three dissent statements from the Reserve Bank Presidents who voted against the FOMC decision, we can see that forward guidance is not a thing that Fed officials will easily concede.

Beth HammackCentral Bank Communications