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Independent Journalism Project covering Economics and Global Economy

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Should the Fed and BoC look through the World Cup employment boost?

The important question, however, is this: shouldn't the Fed and Bank of Canada look through such a one-off, short-term World Cup employment boost?

Bank of CanadaCanada Jobs Report

Taking One Last Beth Before the Fed Blackout Period

Beth Hammack, president of the Cleveland Fed, posted on LinkedIn hours after the jobs report that "today's jobs report reaffirms that the labor market appears to be roughly in balance" and that she "believe[s] persistently high inflation is the bigger concern." If recent inflationary trends continue, "it may soon be appropriate to act," she concluded.

Beth HammackFederal Reserve

Governor Powell’s First Speech Doesn’t Sound ‘Quiet’

Federal Reserve Governor Powell, who vowed to be a "low-profile" Fed governor in support of Chairman Warsh, made sure everyone still heard him in his first speech after handing over the chairmanship.

Central Bank IndependenceChris Waller

Powell Hands Warsh a Dissent Surge, But Not Really a Divided Fed

What if I tell you the Fed officials actually disagreed more at times during the zero-against vote period than in the last meeting? This is what the FOMC minutes-based Hidden Dissent Index indicates.

Federal ReserveFOMC Hidden Dissent

Central bankers are pushing back against the ‘War? Sh!’ strategy — why look-through may no longer be a good idea

Federal Reserve governor Chris Waller on Friday cast serious doubt on the textbook look-through strategy to handle the Iran War-induced inflationary pressure — or what we fashionably called the "War? Sh~" strategy. And he is not the only central banker who has expressed reservations.

Chris WallerFederal Reserve

Trump to swear Warsh in as Fed chair on May 22

Kevin Warsh will officially take charge of the Federal Reserve on Friday as he will be sworn in as the next Fed chair at a White House ceremony hosted by President Donald Trump, Fox News's Edward Lawrence reported. Reuters then reported, citing unnamed White House officials, that Trump will not only host the ceremony but...

Central Bank IndependenceDonald Trump

Warsh’s Forward Guidance Paradox

Let's get this straight: Warsh hates forward guidance. But if we look at the three dissent statements from the Reserve Bank Presidents who voted against the FOMC decision, we can see that forward guidance is not a thing that Fed officials will easily concede.

Beth HammackCentral Bank Communications

A User’s Guide to Tariff Accrual Compensating Obligations

On the accidental invention of a new fiscal instrument, its structural advantages over existing debt ceiling workarounds, and the question of whether the next administration does this on purpose I. Introduction The trillion-dollar coin required a legal fiction. TACOs do not. On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs imposed by...

Debt CeilingIEEPA

‘Sh!’ Powell to skip WAR during his spell in Warsh’s Fed

Powell announced his intention to stay at the Fed board after his term as chairman ends on May 15. The amount of time he will remain at his governor position, which will only expire in Jan 2028, is still to be determined, as Powell said it will depend on whether the legal attacks by the Donald Trump administration are "well and truly over with finality and transparency."

Chris WallerFederal Reserve

Review of Ahamed’s 1873—The first international financial crisis rhymes with 2026

Rated: 4.5/5 Stars | Ahamed is unquestionably an excellent writer. In 1873, he managed to pack four decades of history about the Western financial system into 300 pages in an insightful and convincing manner.

1873Book Reviews

Are you ready for Federal Reserve Chair Miran? A question on chair pro tem appointment

Powell says he will be Chair Pro Tem as long as Warsh is not confirmed. Is it 100% going to happen?

Alan GreenspanArthur Burns

This is why the Fed can afford to look through the Iran War energy shock

The vacancy-to-unemployed ratio currently stands at 0.91 — meaning there are fewer open jobs than unemployed workers. At the peak of post-COVID labor market tightness, that ratio exceeded 2. This structural difference is the strongest argument the Fed has for looking through the Iran War energy shock.

Central Bank Look Through PolicyFederal Reserve