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Research and writing on the 2026 Victorian state election.

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Voter defection

What the records on voter defection say about how many voters move between parties, and what moves them.

votingpartisanship

Evidence for campaign tactics

The designs that can carry a claim that a tactic worked, the kinds of account that cannot, and how the published record is tilted.

campaigningevidence

Vox's seat loss in the July 2023 Spanish general election, what the campaign against it was doing at the time, and the one effect of that campaign that has been measured.

The field experiments on what moves turnout, the tactics ranked against each other, and Victoria's own turnout record.

turnoutcampaigning

Withdrawals between rounds, France 2024

The 2024 French runoffs, the 224 candidates who withdrew, the transfer rates between rounds, and what the vote counts do and do not show.

far rightfrance

Preference flows

What a preference flow is, and the counted estimates for Australian elections.

preferencesvictoria

The field experiments on whether campaign contact changes a vote, and where the effect has shown up.

campaigningpersuasion

Attention to the far right

Studies on whether attention to immigration, or to the party, raises far-right support, and on which counter-messages have moved it.

messagingfar right

Correcting false claims

The experiments on whether correcting a false claim changes what people believe, and what a correction needs before it works.

messagingmisinformation

Vote splitting in Canada

Canada's 1993 election took the governing Progressive Conservatives from 169 seats to two, while the right's vote moved mostly in Quebec and its seats moved everywhere.

right splitcanada

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