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Futures

Articles and publications tagged Futures across the Atmosphere.

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Articles

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Weird and Deadly Interesting

Weird and Deadly InterestingSep 14, 2026

p(dolphin) Risk of AI | Weekstarter 38-2026

Weekstarter is here. Come and get your weekly updates, links, recommendations, and learn about my new AI risk metric.

gordonbrander.comAug 1, 2026

From Three Horizons, The Patterning of Hope , by Bill Sharpe Horizon 1: The status quo. The current, dominant business or system, which should be maintained and improved. Horizon 2: The transition zone. The contested space where innovations are…

gordonbrander.comOct 28, 2025

We live in a networked world, a world governed by asymmetry, feedback loops , and power laws . The US Army and Navy War College has an acronym for this kind of world: VUCA . Volatile Uncertain Complex Ambiguous

futuresstrategy

gordonbrander.comOct 28, 2025

Cross-impact analysis

Used in the analysis and deciding phase of scenario planning . Cross-impact analysis (CIA) is a foresight methodology to map interrelationships between a set of scenarios/trends/factors to assess their potential combined impact. It uses a matrix to…

futuresstrategy

gordonbrander.comAug 19, 2025

The TAIDA method of scenario planning breaks the research process into five phases: Tracking: trace and describe changes that affect the focal question. Analyzing: analyze changes and generate scenarios. Imaging: gathering insights about plausible…

gordonbrander.comDec 9, 2024

Better to be surprised by a simulation

It’s better to be surprised by simulation than blindsided by reality. ( Stuart Candy )

gordonbrander.comNov 26, 2019

Science is the only news

Science is the only news. When you scan a news portal or magazine, all the human interest stuff is the same old he-said-she-said, the politics and economics the same cyclical dramas, the fashions a pathetic illusion of newness; even the technology…

fundamental-needsfutures

gordonbrander.comApr 24, 2019

The book will kill the edifice

Architecture is the great book of humanity, the principal expression of man in his different stages of development, either as a force or as an intelligence. When the mass of reminiscences of the human race became so heavy and so confused that…

architecturefutures

gordonbrander.comMar 28, 2019

We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run. Why? According to Clark's 3 laws , failure of nerve and failure of imagination.

futuresstrategy

gordonbrander.comOct 8, 2018

The Lindy Effect posits that the lifespan of an idea is about 2x as long as it is old. If the story of Beowulf has been told for about 1000 years, we can expect it to be told for 1000 more. Unlike mortals and machines, ideas don't wear out with…

futuresstrategy

gordonbrander.comSep 16, 2018

Cities are like compost heaps

Cities are like compost heaps — just layers and layers of stuff. In cities, the past and the present and the future can all be totally adjacent. — William Gibson And also: Cities look to me to be our most characteristic technology. We didn’t really…

architecturefutures

gordonbrander.comSep 3, 2018

Scenario planning

Scenario planning is a way of thinking about the future. It's not about predicting, but about imagining more effectively. The basic idea is this: When we talk about "the future" we naturally imagine a linear extrapolation from the…

gordonbrander.comFeb 19, 2018

Looking through the lens of conformability means looking at what isn't changing, and asking how you can tailor your product/service/technology to conform to that landscape. What changes slowly? Our fundamental needs — food, water, shelter, energy.…

futuresstrategy

gordonbrander.comJan 28, 2018

Cities outlive civilizations

Cities outlive civilizations. Other things that outlive civilizations: Technologies. Nothing gets un-invented once invented. Some ideas Some religions Books Some buildings (mostly religious or monumental) Roads, wells, bridges and infrastructure…

gordonbrander.comJan 28, 2018

Arthur C Clarke's three laws of forecasting: When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong. The only way of…

gordonbrander.comJan 28, 2018

Pace layers are a model for thinking about change, developed by Stewart Brand . Each layer acts as a platform for the layer above it, and moves more slowly, else it wouldn't act as a platform. When exploring a problem space, ask What is changing…

gordonbrander.comJan 14, 2018

An ecological novel disguised as hard sci-fi.

anthropocenebook

gordonbrander.comJan 10, 2018

Thing from the Future

Thing from the Future is a deck of cards for scenario planning . It's a game about peeking into a future and pulling objects from that future into the present. Cards come in 4 flavors: Arc cards describe a future trajectory (grow / collapse /…

gordonbrander.comOct 26, 2016

Networked things

Tesla recently announced self-driving as an add-on feature for future models. Buried in the legal jargon is this: You're not allowed to use your self-driving Tesla "for revenue purposes" . Who owns this car? On Oct 21, 2016 a massive…

engineeringfutures

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