Preference flows
What a preference flow is, and the counted estimates for Australian elections.
nder full preferential voting a vote is not thrown away when its first choice is knocked out — it moves. Where does the published record say those moved votes go?
Antony Green (2026)
Antony Green's round-up of the counted preference flows between the Coalition and One Nation, across the 2019, 2022 and 2025 federal elections and recent Queensland ones.
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AEC, 2025 federal preference flows
The AEC's national table showing, for each party at the 2025 federal election, where its preferences went when it was excluded.
At the 2025 federal election only 115 of the 150 seats finished as a Labor-versus-Coalition contest. The rest ended in other pairings.
AEC, Farrer by-election 2026
The AEC's final count for the 2026 Farrer by-election, including the flow of Liberal and National preferences to One Nation.
The AEC's count at Farrer: Liberal preferences went 58.99 percent to One Nation, National preferences 69.13 percent, on the two-party flow of each.
It is not known why Liberal preferences to One Nation at Farrer (58.99 percent) were weaker than the Nationals' (69.13 percent): the party making the recommendation, the seats themselves, or both.
VEC, Nepean by-election 2026
The VEC's full distribution of preferences for the 2026 Nepean by-election, the only Victorian count this cycle with a One Nation distribution.
In the one Victorian count this cycle, at Nepean, One Nation's own preferences went 77.5 percent to the Liberal, while Green preferences went 70.1 percent to the independent and 9.2 percent to One Nation.
ABC News on Nepean
The ABC's count analysis of Nepean, reading out each stage of the distribution.
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VEC, 2022 preference distributions
A VEC note on how many districts at the 2022 state election had a full preference distribution published.
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Synthesis
A preference flow is the share of an excluded candidate's votes that reaches each of the last two candidates. A distribution is the tally through every exclusion stage. Both are published, but the flow is the number that can be compared across seats.
The two directions are not mirror images: Labor and Green preferences cross at above 85 percent, Coalition and One Nation preferences at around 75.
Farrer and Nepean both finished with a non-Labor finalist, which is not the shape a Victorian three-cornered seat usually takes.
The 75 percent figure comes from federal and Queensland counts. Victoria has little to check it against: One Nation has contested few lower-house seats, and only 39 of 88 districts had a full distribution published in 2022.
A how-to-vote recommendation and a voter's own ordering both move a flow, and the published totals do not separate the two.
Linked notes
/notes/why-voters-defect
/notes/the-front-republicain
/notes/canada-1993-right-split
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