Crime and Community Safety

What it is

Youth crime, knife/machete crime, home invasions, carjackings, bail laws and police resourcing; Labor's late "tough-on-crime" turn (1,500 extra police, "Jack's Law" search powers) vs Coalition ("break bail, face jail") and One Nation's hard line (¹(;² ).

Evidence

Crime is the second-most salient issue: 56% top-three (³); DemosAU 29% call it the biggest issue (⁴). Statistics are improving — crime rate -3.8%, youth offending -8.1%, home invasions -27%, carjackings -25% — but police still call it "unacceptably high" (>13% above three years ago), with 1,340 unfilled police roles (⁵). Issue ownership is contested: Coalition 25%, One Nation 22%, Labor only 16% (³); among One Nation converts crime is the top concern (79%; 86% of Coalition-to-One-Nation converts), suggesting Coalition crime campaigning is bleeding votes to One Nation (³).

Where it bites

Outer-suburban and regional; Latrobe LGA is the highest-represented regional area (+3.4%, double the state rate) — including Morwell/Gippsland, where One Nation is strongest (⁵(;⁶ ).

Who owns it

Coalition leads, but One Nation is the net beneficiary of crime anxiety; Labor's "adult time for adult crime" matching has not convinced voters (³(;¹ ).